US President Joe Biden. Photo Credit: AP
President Joe Biden clinched his popularity in 2020 to become the president of the most powerful country on earth. He wasn’t the best candidate at the time, but most Americans wanted someone else at the White House. With what appeared to be an undesirable choice for some, Mr. Joe Biden was celebrated as a colossus who would change the political course of America. But that may no longer be the case, as his popularity is dwindling by the day and is taking a downward slide due in part to some domestic and foreign policy issues.
Can Joe Biden win reelection?
Political analysts believe the 2024 elections may be too close to call due to some polling numbers between Mr. Joe Biden and his closest political rival, Donald Trump.
When former President Donald Trump lost the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, historians described him as the first American sitting president not to win reelection in the 21st century and the second after George H.W. Bush. But the former president is not alone here, as history is about to repeat itself.
With an unprecedented migrant crisis at the southern border, lame duck foreign policy, and domestic economic woes, President Joe Biden is losing popularly as Nov. 5, 2024 approaches and may not win reelection. Mr. Joe Biden is increasingly facing the daunting task of restoring the overall confidence of America in his presidency as the country struggles with rock-bottom inflation. His success at that is waning by the day. With increasingly frail poll numbers amid a politically divided Congress, Mr. Joe Biden looks more set than ever to return to his country home, Delaware, to perform local chores by the end of the year as he fades away from the White House.
With a failing memory and IQ at best, Mr. Joe Biden can give fishing lessons by the riverside of his home town to anyone not so successful at it. In November 2020, following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential elections, President Trump saw his losing numbers and called a rally. At the Washington rally, the president charged his supporters to go to Congress and make their “voices heard.”
The rioters arrived at Congress a few minutes later, and the showdown began. I watched the proceedings on television. What began as a peaceful match soon became free for all. I saw police officers charged at, beaten, and dragged. I saw windows smashed. Vice President Mike Pence was in Congress to confirm the electoral votes. As the situation became tense, he went undeground with a group of senators as the protesters laid siege to America’s seat of democracy. They emerged after the chaos and continued with the collation. They confirmed Joe Biden as president. Once in office, Mr. Joe Biden incentivized migrant caravans from Latin America and later from dangerous places like Syria and Iran in the name of diversity.
American adversaries saw his weak body language and began attacking American interests globally. Ukraine was invaded, and the Houthis began attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea as Israeli forces battled Hamas terrorists. Iranian proxies began attacking American bases in Iraq, Syria, and later in Jordan, where three American soldiers were killed overnight in their sleep and more than 30 others were injured. It was a drone attack supplied by Iran. Mr. Biden could not take any action against Iran for fear of escalation.
Has President Joe Biden lived up to expectations?
Most Americans think he has not, and their frustration is growing by the day. At home, Mr. Biden launched his massive spending plan soon after he became president. His infrastructure and other COVID-19 spending sprees began to slowly impact the shaky economy reeling from the impact of the pandemic.
Inflation began to bite, consumer confidence dropped, his approval ratings tanked, and the United States soon lost her AAA credit ratings in a downgrade by Fitch Ratings to AA+. Unemployment rose beyond pre-pandemic levels, and the country’s GDP dipped. President Joe Biden will face former President Donald Trump in the November 5 election in a rematch. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated incumbent President Trump, but the former president continues to dispute the election results as rigged, flawed, and laced with irregularities. Although Mr. Trump is facing a litany of charges, from hush money to his business practices in New York and not forgetting his mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-ar-Lago Palm Beach home and alleged election interference in Georgia, Mr. Trump remains upbeat and very popular among his Republican base. The former president has described the allegations against him as a political witch hunt intended to stop his presidential ambitions. With so much hope and expectation, Mr. Biden entered the White House ill-prepared, with no clear economic or immigration policies. His lackluster foreign policy objectives have severely damaged America’s global standing. Having performed so poorly, here are some reasons why the serving US President is losing popularity and may not win reelection.
DOMESTIC ISSUES
President Joe Biden banked on his preelection approval ratings to enjoy an easy ride to the White House, but things have changed so far. The president’s approval ratings have tanked in the last couple of years. In a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos between March 22 and 24, 2024, after the President’s annual State of the Union address, about 56% of Americans surveyed disapproved of Mr. Biden’s performance. Two-fifths of those surveyed said they approved of his performance. The poll obtained responses from 1021 adults online using a nationally representative sample with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. This is in sharp contrast to a similar poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos between February 17 and 18, 2021, where 56% of Americans approved of the way Mr. Biden conducted his presidential duties.
Approval Ratings
Mr. Trump leads Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released on April 2, 2024. The poll was conducted by phone and text between March 17 and 24, among 600 registered voters each from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 51 percent of those polled said they approved of Trump’s time in office, while only 38 percent approved of President Joe Biden. In Wisconsin, for instance, Mr. Trump is tied with Biden, with each receiving 46 percent support, but he leads Biden in the remaining six states. In the 2020 presidential elections, Mr. Trump only won North Carolina, while Biden won the remaining six states.
35 percent of Americans approve of Joe Biden’s job, while 62 percent disapprove, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center published on April 24, 2024.
In December 2023, a third of Americans approved of Joe Biden’s job, while nearly two-thirds, or 64 percent, disapproved.
56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Biden’s performance in office, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll published on April 16, 2024.
Only 34 percent of respondents approve of Biden’s approach to the economy. The number of respondents approving of Biden’s performance as president fell to 38 percent, down from 40 percent in March, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between April 12 and 14. The online poll surveyed 1016 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of three percentage points.
President Biden has recorded the lowest 13th-quarter average approval rating for any U.S. president in recent history, according to a report by Gallup published on April 26, 2024.
During the president’s 13th quarter in office, which began January 20 and ended April 19, Mr. Biden’s job approval rating averaged 38.7 percent.
According to Gallup, George H.W. Bush had a 13th quarter average approval rating of 41.8 percent, Barack Obama 45.9 percent, and Donald Trump 45.9 percent. Jimmy Carter is the only president with a 13th quarter average approval rating less than 50 percent since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953. Eisenhower had 73.2 percent during the same time, which is the highest for any U.S. president in history.
Three of the four prior presidents with 13th quarter averages below 50 percent did not win reelection, except Barack Obama.
Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton are four of the six presidents who had 13th quarter approval averages between 51 and 55 percent and got reelected, according to Gallup.
38 percent of Americans approve of Joe Biden’s job in April, according to a Gallup poll conducted between April 1 and 22. In March, 40 percent approved of his job, while 38 percent approved of his job in February.
Only 2 percent of Republicans approve of Mr. Biden’s job, while 83 percent of Democrats approve of it. According to Gallup’s poll, 33 percent of independents approve of his job.
Credit Ratings
On August 1, 2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to AA+ from AAA with a stable outlook. The New York-based organization removed the Rating Watch Negative, and the country ceiling was affirmed at AA+. According to Fitch Ratings, the downgrade reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing government debt burden, and the erosion of governance. Fitch cited the government’s lack of a medium-term fiscal framework, repeated debt ceiling political standoffs, and last-minute resolutions, which it noted erode confidence in fiscal management. The group lamented the rising general government (GG) deficit, which it expects to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023 from 3.7% of GDP in 2022, which it said is a reflection of cynically weaker federal reserves, new spending initiatives, and a higher interest burden.
On April 2, 2019, the ratings were AAA with a positive outlook, which the U.S. maintained on July 8, 2022.
GDP
In a release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on March 28, 2024, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. These numbers reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government fixed investment, and residential fixed investment, most of which were offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. This is in sharp contrast to the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020, which increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent.
In the first quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent, according to the “advance” estimate released on April 25, 2024. This is a sharp drop from the Q4 2023 estimate.
Inflation
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on March 12, 2024, indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, rose 0.4% for all items in February, including gasoline and shelter, seasonally adjusted. The CPI also rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. For all items less food and energy, CPI increased 0.4% in February (SA), up 3.8% over the year (NSA). The 12-month period covers February 2023 to February 2024, where the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers increased 3.2 percent (NSA) after a 3.1 percent increase from January 2023 to January 2024. For the period December 2022 to December 2023, consumer prices for all items rose 3.4 percent.
Food prices also increased 2.7 percent, reflecting a 1.3 percent increase in prices for food at home and a 5.2 percent increase for food away from home. In 2020, consumer prices rose 1.23 percent, while data for 2021 indicated a 3.4 percent rise.
In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent (seasonally adjusted), according to a report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 10. These numbers have remained unchanged since February. The all-item index in the last 12 months increased by 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Prices for shelter and gasoline increased and contributed to more than half of the all-item index. The energy index rose 1.1 percent, and the food index rose 0.1 percent.
On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law in a bid to combat rising inflation. The law seeks to reduce the federal government budget deficit, lower prescription drug prices, and promote clean energy while investing in domestic energy production. The law will raise $738 billion from tax reform and prescription drug reform and authorize $891 billion in total spending, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). This appears not to have had the needed impact, as anticipated.
Unemployment
The number of unemployed Americans was 6.1 million in January 2024, according to a report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on February 8, 2024. The unemployment rate was 3.7 for the third month in a row. The report indicated that the rate has been within the range of 3.4 percent to 3.8 percent since February 2022. 2.2 million, or 34.7 percent, of the unemployed were jobless, not on a temporary layoff. In January 2024, 876,000, or 14.1 percent, of the total unemployed were jobless people who were on a temporary layoff. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent in February 2024, and the number of unemployed people increased by 334,000 to 6.5 million, according to the BLS. In sharp contrast to the numbers before Mr. Joe Biden became President, the U.S. labor market remained strong in 2019, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, the lowest rate since 1969.
According to the BLS, both the employment-population ratio and the civilian labor force participation rate increased over the year. Levels of long-term joblessness and involuntary part-time employment continued to trend down. People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the past 4 weeks, and are currently available for work, the bureau noted.
In April, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000, leaving the unemployment rate at 3.9 percent. Despite the job gains in health care, social assistance, and transportation and warehousing, unemployment continues to remain a problem.
Consumer Confidence
Data from the Conference Board indicates that the consumer confidence index rose in January 2024 to 114.8 (1985 = 100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021 and marked the third straight monthly increase. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers assessments of current business and labor market conditions, surged to 161.3 (1985 = 100) from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index, based on consumers short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, improved to 83.8 (1985 = 100) in January, up from a revised reading of 81.9 in December. Contrasting these values with June 2021, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved further, following gains in each of the previous four months.
The index stood at 127.3 (1985 = 100), up from its trough of 85.7 in April 2020 and just below its pre-pandemic reading of 132.6 in February 2020. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all rose, which is likely to support economic growth in the short term. Spending on services and vacations also rose. This data seems to suggest that US consumer confidence is approaching a pre-pandemic level.
In April, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated for the third consecutive month and retreated to 97.0 (1985 = 100). This is in contrast to a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. This is the lowest level since July 2022.
The present situation index declined to 142.9 (1985 = 100). This is from a downwardly revised 146.8 in March. The expectation index also fell to 66.4 (1985 = 100) from 74.0 in March.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on an online sample and is published on the last Tuesday of every month. .
Immigration
The US southern border is a key route for human smuggling and trafficking. The majority of those entering the border are mostly from Latin America, but recently this appears to have changed following President Joe Biden’s increasingly lax immigration policies. The result of this open border is chaos of magnitude not seen in decades.In Fiscal Year 2023, there were nearly 2.5 million irregular encounters at the US-Mexico border—that is US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) terminology for expulsions and apprehensions of migrants, according to the Wilson Center. In 2022, there were 2.2 million encounters, while Fiscal Year 2021 saw about 1.6 million. In 2023, more than half of those reaching the US-Mexico border came from countries other than Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
Migrants came from countries such as Columbia and Panama, while 7,000 people included individuals who claimed to hail from 24 different countries, including Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cameroon. According to Customs and Border Protection, a total of 851,508 individuals were apprehended between ports of entry on the southern border in fiscal year 2019, while a total of 396,579 individuals were apprehended between ports of entry in 2018.A report by Customs and Border Protection in January 2024 revealed that the CBP had a total of 302,034 encounters along the Southwest border in December 2023 alone.
FOREIGN POLICY
Israel-Hamas War
The Israel-Hamas war was triggered by a cross-border raid by Hamas forces into Israel on October 7, 2023. More than 1200 Israelis were killed and more than 2000 injured, according to Israeli officials. Over 2000 people were kidnapped in Gaza. Israel responded by invading the Gaza Strip controlled by Hamas, considered a terrorist group by most Western countries, including the U.S., France, the U.K., and Canada. The immediate fallout of that conflict is global protests and antisemitism. The Joe Biden administration has supplied Israel with most of the weapons used in that war, which ran into billions, leading to anger and college protests across the U.S. Mr. Joe Biden appears to have lost support among Palestinian Americans and American Muslims, and his approval ratings have dropped sharply in some instances.
Most Americans have criticized Biden’s support for Israel and for bypassing Congress at some point to supply Israel with lethal weapons for its campaign in Gaza due to non-bipartisan Congressional support. Pro-Palestinian groups have created encampments at several U.S. colleges, starting at New York’s Columbia University. Today the protest has spread to several cities, and so has the anger.
Iran
Iran is one of America’s adversaries that opposes US interests in the Middle East. The country arms and supports several militias in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, and Islamic Jihad in Syria. In recent times, these extremist groups have attacked US bases in places like Iraq and later in Jordan, where three US service personnel were killed. The Biden Administration is increasingly handicapped and hasn’t provided enough deterrents against Tehran or justifiable retaliation that teaches the Islamic terror state a lesson. Rather, we hear such words as “restraint, not expanding a regional conflict,” and what not. At the end of 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a stark warning about Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. The agency said the Islamic Republic had enough material to make three nuclear bombs if it enriches the material now at 60% and beyond.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Tehran’s nuclear enrichment remains high. This uranium enrichment is well beyond any civilian or commercial use, the agency warned. A 2015 defunct agreement with the world powers emphasized that Iran can enrich uranium only to 3.67%, but former President Donald Trump rejected the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany were also signatories to the JCPOA. Following the October 7th attack on Israel by Hamas, Iran-backed militias began attacking US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The Houthis are not left out; they are attacking vessels in the Red Sea in support of Hamas and in retaliation for US support for Israel.
Three US troops and at least 34 service members were injured in January in a drone attack overnight on a small US outpost in Jordan, according to US officials. After the “we shall respond” rhetoric, President Joe Biden has so far failed to hit a single site in Iran, despite receiving possible strike targets. The incident took place at Tower 22 in Jordan, near the border with Syria, on January 28, 2024. The attack is believed to have been carried out by Iran-backed militants in Syria. The US and coalition forces suffered at least 158 attacks in Iraq and Syria before the Jordan attacks. Republicans criticized the president for not taking strong enough action against Tehran.
Ukraine
On February 24, 2022, Russian forces began invading Ukraine after amassing troops on its border with Ukraine for weeks. Russian missiles landed across Ukrainian cities before dawn. Russia had consistently denied planning to invade Ukraine. US President Joe Biden saw the red flag but could neither provide leadership nor protect Ukraine. There was no strong rhetoric from the White House, and there were no laid-down consequences should the Kremlin invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin watched the body language of America’s Joe. He waited and did his calculations. There would be no consequences, and he struck. Nowhere was safe in Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv. Joe Biden was up from sleep when he started funding weapons shipment to Ukraine.
But it was too late; the Russians were already deep into Ukrainian territory, conquering a large swath of land. The Ukrainian forces fought back with everything they had. They struck Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and claimed it sank the amphibious ship, the Caesar Kunikov, off the coast of Russian-occupied Crimea. Now it’s two years into the battle, and the battle rages on with no clear winner and no clear end in sight. Both sides fought in Avdiivka, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Kherson, Alupka, Mariupol, etc. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, struggled and sought quick NATO membership, but America’s Joe could not take the heat for the sake of an old-time foe, the Russians. Russia quickly withdrew from the north by October 2022, having failed to take Kyiv, and nothing has changed significantly on the ground since then.
The Biden Administration and the U.S. Congress have spent about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support before. This is according to the Council on Foreign Relations, which quoted research done by a German institute, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy n February 2014. In April 2024, the U.S. Congress approved a $95 billion aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. $60.84 billion was approved to address the conflict in Ukraine. Russian forces invaded and annexed Crimea, and because there was no consequence, they came back after 8 years. Despite threats and rhetoric from the Obama administration, the Russians had their way. Mr. Biden saw Russian forces amassing troops on its border with Ukraine and had intelligence on the Russian plan, but rather than act, he took after his boss Obama with cheap talk and no action.
Afghanistan
The United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 following attacks on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and the failed White House attacks on September 11, 2001. The attacks were masterminded by Osama bin Laden, a terrorist whom Washington accused of masterminding attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. With its full military might, the US toppled the Taliban regime and built democratic institutions in the country. After spending hundreds of billions of dollars rebuilding the Al-Qaeda terror enclave, the Americans had had enough, and it was time to bring the troops back home. Successive US presidents tried but failed to withdraw their forces from the opium country. President Joe Biden took the bold step and announced the withdrawal of American soldiers from Afghanistan, which was proposed to be completed by August 31, 2021.
The ill-motivated and corrupt Afghan military was too cowardly to defend the country against the rampaging Taliban forces, who took advantage of the possible power vacuum that will be created once the Americans are gone. The Taliban fought street battles, with the Afghan military fleeing from all fronts as the Americans were leaving. But it appeared Mr. Biden lacked a clear exit strategy. What started as a heroic withdrawal soon became chaos of a magnitude not seen in recent times. Thousands of Afghans, sensing the Taliban gains across the country, tried endlessly to leave the country with the Americans. They lined the runway and hopelessly tried to board American planes as the reality of possible Taliban vengeance and brutality stared them in the face. Some of them had worked with coalition forces since 2001 and were considered traitors by the Taliban.
The Kabul airport soon became full of fleeing Afghans. The uncoordinated Biden administration could not provide any plan to airlift Afghans who helped coalition forces in their battle against Taliban forces. Several Americans were stranded, and there were no clear logistical plans to remove Americans from the troubled country. The number of Americans that needed to be airlifted was not clear, nor was the number of Afghans. Where these numbers were known, there was no clear strategy to coordinate their evacuation from the vast country. The result was shame and a dent in America’s 20-year effort to bring democracy to the country. As American forces and Afghans gathered at the Kabul airport, the chaos also provided cover for the Islamic State, which disguised their suicide bombers among the civilians. Soon, the suicide bombers detonated their explosives.
At least 12 U.S. troops were killed at the Kabul airport and 15 others were wounded on August 26, 2021. A visibly angry president vowed to “hunt down” the attackers and said the dead troops were “heroes.” But it was too late, and no amount of hunting could bring back those American soldiers. The Biden administration lacked tact and a clear exit strategy, which was a waste of America’s two-decade investment in Afghanistan. The country had fallen back into the hands of the Taliban, which thousands of American troops fought and died to defeat. Scores of civilians were killed in the attacks. Mr. Biden, while fending off criticism of his chaotic Afghan withdrawal, said he wanted to bring the troops home to save their lives, but this was not the case. With no caution or foreign policy considerations, Mr. Biden abruptly withdrew American troops and left a vacuum too big for the corrupt Afghan military to fill. Today, the Taliban are back in control with the same brutality they’re known for. Women’s rights have been restricted, and they can’t work to earn a living and require a full-face veil in some public places, just like before U.S. forces entered the country in 2001.
Since 2001, the U.S. military has lost about 2500 of its troops. According to U.S. officials, at the time of the attacks, about 10,000 Americans were still in the country, amidst a disorganized exit strategy. Former President Donald Trump had signed a peace deal with the Taliban and set a May 2021 withdrawal date, which the Biden administration extended until August of the same year.