Is Trump or Biden leading in national polls?

President Joe Biden (left), former President Donald Trump (right). Photo Credit: AP

Several polls appear to suggest that the November 5 elections between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will be a tight race. While Mr. Biden appears to have an advantage in some polls, Mr. Trump edges over the incumbent in a number of polls. But recently, Mr. Biden seems to be losing support due to worsening economic conditions, damaging immigration policies, deep rooted inflation, and his handling of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Mr. Trump is standing trial and facing charges relating to his business dealings in New York, hush money paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels, alleged electoral interference in Georgia, and mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. The former president continues to receive support among his Republican base and has dismissed all charges against him as politically motivated, intended to hoodwink him from contesting the November 5, 2024, U.S. presidential elections. 

The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College Polls

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden among registered voters in the five battleground states of Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan, according to New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls. Mr. Biden leads Trump among registered voters in Wisconsin. The Times/Sienna polls were conducted among registered voters in six crucial battleground states between April 28 and May 9, 2024. The poll was conducted mostly among young and non-white voters. 

Among likely voters, Mr. Biden led in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and narrowly in Wisconsin. Mr. Biden led in Michigan.  

Rasmussen Reports Poll

Mr. Trump leads President Biden by 46 percent to 36 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll published on May 3, 2024. The former president also leads independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. by 46 percent to 9 percent. 

The 10 point lead indicates an increase for Mr. Trump in contrast with the 6-point lead in April, which at the time was 44 percent to 38 percent. RFK had 10 percent at the time. 

Trump is maintaining his support among black people at 21 percent while Biden’s support is 61 percent, far lower than the 90 percent black voters typically vote for Democrats. While Trump continues to maintain his support among black voters, Biden’s support have dropped sharply. 

The poll surveyed 35 percent of Democrats, 33 percent of Republicans, and 32 percent of independents. 

According to the poll, 71 percent of likely voters are enthusiastic about voting in November, but Republican voters showed higher enthusiasm than Democrats. 

Reuters/Ipsos Poll

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on May 1, 2024, shows a close race between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. 

According to the poll conducted from April 29 to 30, 2024, Trump holds a two-point lead over Biden at 37–35 percent. Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump by one point, at 40–39 percent. 

The poll used a representative sample of 1,022 U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and above. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. 

In March, a similar Reuters/Iposos poll conducted between Narch 7 and 13 projected President Biden to receive 43 percent of the votes in November, while Trump will receive 38 percent of the votes. The poll was conducted among 3,356 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

CNN/SSRS Poll

Trump leads Biden 49–43 percent, according to a CNN poll published on April 28, 2024. Majority of Americans surveyed said Trump’s first term was a success while Biden’s term is a failure. 

According to the poll conducted by SSRS on behalf of CNN, 61 percent say Biden’s presidency has been a failure, while 39 percent say it is a success. 55 percent of all Americans say Trump’s presidency was a success, while 44 percent say it was a failure. 

In January, Trump led Biden 49–45 percent, according to CNN’s January 2024 poll. 

In January 2022, 57 percent called Biden’s first year a failure, while 41 percent said it was a success.

Along political lines, 92 percent of Republicans said Trump’s time in office was a success, compared to just 73 percent of Democrats who call Biden’s term a success. 

The CNN poll also indicated that 51 percent of independents say Trump’s term in office was a success, while only 37 percent say Biden’s term is a success. 

Among registered voters, 47 percent say Biden’s term is a failure.

58 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, compared to 55 percent for Trump. 

Trump maintains a 42-33 percent lead over Biden when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included in the matchup. 

Among the youngest voters, less than 35, Trump leads Biden 51–40 percent. 

President Biden trails Trump 46–47 percent among voters 18–34.

Among all voters, 52 percent say there is no chance they would support Biden, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. 

60 percent disapprove of Biden’s job, while only 40 percent approve of the way the president handled his presidential duties.

The CNN poll was conducted from April 18–23 among 1,211 adults nationwide using a random sample either online or by telephone. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.  About 987 registered voters took part in the survey. 

Emerson College/The Hill Poll

Trump leads Biden in seven key swing states, according to a new poll conducted by Emerson College/The Hill. 

Trump leads Biden by four points in Arizona, one point in Michigan and Nevada, three points in Georgia, two points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and five points in North Carolina. 

Trump leads Biden among independent voters in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, while Biden leads in Georgia and Wisconsin. The Democratic candidate also leads Trump among members of labor unions in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 

The poll was conducted between April 25 and 29 among 1,000 registered voters in each state with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. 

Other polls have found similar results. For instance, a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in March found Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Harvard Youth Poll

President Biden leads Trump by 6 points among young men and 33 points among young women, according to the Harvard Youth Poll conducted among young Americans less than 30 years old. The poll was released on Thursday, April 18, 2024, by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School. Those surveyed were between 18 and 29 years old nationwide, with more than half (53%) saying they would be voting in the Nov. 5 presidential elections.

The twice-annual survey was conducted among 2010 Americans between March 14 and 21, 2024, as part of the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP), which started in 2000.

Mr. Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points among young Americans below 30 and by 19 points among likely voters. 

According to the poll, Biden leads Trump 50 percent to 37 percent among registered young voters and 56 percent to 37 percent among likely young voters. 

Among the 1,051 likely voters, Mr. Biden leads Trump 45 percent to 37 percent when there is no voter screen, with 16 percent remaining undecided. 

According to the 47th edition of the Harvard Youth Poll released in spring 2024, President Biden had a 14-point lead over Trump among 18- to 24-year-olds and a 26-point lead among 25- to 29-year-olds. 

Among white voters, Mr. Biden leads Trump by 3 points and also leads by 43 points among non-white voters. 

The president had a 47-point lead among college graduates and a 23-point lead among college students. 

However, 76 percent of Trump voters say they enthusiastically support the former president, compared to 44 percent for Mr. Biden, giving Mr. Trump a convincing lead. 

Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 felony charges in criminal cases brought against him, some of which are state and federal charges. Some of the charges relate to attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential elections, falsifying business records in New York, and keeping classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home. When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if Donald Trump was found guilty in any of these trials before the election, 42 percent said they would vote for Biden, while 24 percent said they would vote for Trump. This increases Biden’s lead by 18 points among all young voters.

Biden’s lead among young registered voters increases to 21 points, up from 13 points, and also increases among young likely voters from 19 to 28 points. 

Joe Biden leads Trump among men with 6 points and women with 33 points for most likely voters in 2024. This is in sharp contrast to Biden’s lead in 2020, which was 26 points among men and 35 points among women. 

During this time in 2020, Biden led Trump 51 percent to 28 percent among all young adults and 60 percent to 30 percent among likely voters less than 30 years old. 

32 percent of young adults identified as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans, and 37 percent as independents. 44 percent of young women identify as Democrats, while 18 percent are Republicans. 

Mr. Biden’s job approval among all young Americans is 31 percent, a 4 percent drop since Fall 2023. 

Marist/PBS NewsHour Poll

President Joe Biden appears to maintain a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, according to a Marist/PBS NewsHour poll. 

According to the new national poll, Biden leads Trump by 51 percent to 48 percent. 

The Marist/PBS NewsHour poll was published on Monday, April 22, 2024. Mr. Biden’s lead appears to narrow further to 53 to 47, as those who said they would definitely vote in November were counted. 

Mr. Biden also leads Trump 43 to 38 when independent and third-party candidates Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were included. 

But Trump and Biden remained tied among independent voters at 49 percent, while 2 percent said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted among 1,192 adults, which included 1,047 registered voters, between April 16 and 18, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. .

Wall Street Journal Poll

Mr. Trump leads Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released on April 2, 2024. The poll was conducted by phone and text between March 17 and 24, among 600 registered voters each from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

51 percent of those polled said they approved of Trump’s time in office, while only 38 percent approved of President Biden. In Wisconsin, for instance, Mr. Trump is tied with Biden, with each receiving 46 percent support, but he leads Biden in the remaining six states. In the 2020 presidential elections, Mr. Trump only won North Carolina, while Biden won the remaining six states.

Civiqs/Daily Kos Poll

In a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll conducted between March 9 and 12, Biden got 45 percent of the vote, while Trump had 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percent. 

Franklin & Marshall College Poll 

In a March Franklin & Marshall College Poll, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 48 to 38 percent, giving him a 10-point lead. 

According to the F&M poll conducted between March 20 and 31, the two leading third-party and independent candidates, Robert Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, are supported by 9 percent and 3 percent of voters, respectively. Their inclusion further reduced Biden’s lead to 42 percent, as opposed to Trump’s 40 percent among Pennsylvania voters.

The poll was conducted among 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, 356 of whom are Republicans, 390 Democrats, and 124 independents. 

YouGov and the Economist Poll

Mr. Trump looks set to make a White House comeback, according to a YouGov and The Economist poll, which saw Trump leading Biden 44 to 42 percent. The poll was conducted among 1,367 registered voters between March 10 and 12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. 

FT/University of Michigan Ross School of Business Poll

Mr. Trump holds an 11-point lead over President Biden on the economy, according to a survey published by the Financial Times on February 11, 2024. 

The FT/University of Michigan Ross School of Business poll indicated that 42 percent of Americans would prefer Mr. Trump to superintend the economy, while 31 percent prefer Mr. Biden. 21 percent said they do not trust any of the candidates. 

The FT-Michigan Ross poll was conducted online by Democratic strategists Global Strategy Group and Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research between February 2 and 5 among 1,006 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 

ABC News/Ipsos Poll

An ABC News/Ipsos poll published on January 12, 2024, showed Trump enjoying 70 percent of Republican support for his nomination, while only 57 Democrats supported Mr. Biden’s nomination.

The survey also showed an abysmal drop in Biden’s approval rating at 33 percent, the lowest for any U.S. president in the last 15 years. 58 percent disapprove of Biden’s work. 

This number is lower than Trump’s lowest score of 36 percent and is the lowest since George W. Bush from 2006–2008. 

37 percent of women approve of Biden’s job in office, down from 57 percent in 2020. Only 34 percent of men approve of his job. 

Biden’s approval rating is 21 percent below average among black people, 15 points below average among Hispanic people, and 6 points below average among white people.

According to the poll, Mr. Biden beats Trump in perceptions of honesty and trustworthiness, while Trump beats Biden in perceptions of mental sharpness and physical health. 

Quinnipiac University Poll

Mr. Trump holds a three-point advantage over President Biden, according to a new poll in Michigan published on March 14, 2024. 

Michigan is a battleground state that may decide November’s election. 

The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted March 8–12, shows Trump leading Biden by 48–45 percent. 

Among independents, Trump leads Biden 46–42 percent, with a 4 percent advantage. 

Mr. Trump maintains a higher lead over Mr. Biden, at 41–36 percent when independent and third-party candidates were included. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had 10 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 4 percent, and Cornell West had 3 percent. 

Trump also leads Biden by 4 points in another Fox News poll in Arizona and by 2 points in Pennsylvania. 

Marquette Law School Poll

A Marquette Law School poll found former President Trump leading Mr. Biden among registered voters 51–49 percent. The national survey showed Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden 52–48 percent among likely voters.

The poll was conducted between February 5 and 15, among 882 registered voters nationwide. The sample size for likely voters is 706 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. 

Two-thirds of respondents are critical of Biden’s open border policy. 

NATIONAL POLL AVERAGES

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Poll

According to national poll averages compiled by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, Trump leads Biden in battleground states such as Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada. Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

The Economist Poll

According to The Economist’s polling average released Tuesday, March 19, 2024, Biden leads Trump 45 percent to 44 percent. 

Gallup Poll 

President Biden has recorded the lowest 13th-quarter average approval rating for any U.S. president in recent history, according to a report by Gallup published on April 26, 2024. 

During the president’s 13th quarter in office, which began January 20 and ended April 19, Mr. Biden’s job approval rating averaged 38.7 percent. 

According to Gallup, this is in sharp contrast to Donald Trump, whose 13th quarter average approval rating was 45.9 percent.